The models are becoming more aggressive with the onset of rain on Tuesday for most areas of Alabama.
Low level moisture will quickly move into the region on Tuesday… as a Gulf Low forms near the Louisiana Coast.
HPC is predicting widespread rain totals across the southeast for the next 5 days.
Alabama is in the one inch category, with some much heavier totals along the coast.
The morning showers and storms have pushed eastward into Georgia and Alabama is mostly rain free at mid-day.
The sun will break through the clouds through the afternoon and temperatures will warm considerably.
We are watching a MCS currently over southern Louisiana. This system is taking an easterly track and looks as it will stay along the Gulf Coast this afternoon. This system will provide focus for additional thunderstorm development across southern sections.
If we see any severe weather for the afternoon, it most likely would occur over southern sections of the state. Damaging winds will be the main threat in this area.
We still have the cold front out west, and there will be some scattered thunderstorms develop later in the afternoon and early evening.
Based on the morning trends, we don’t expect to see many if any of these storms becoming severe north of the I-20 corridor.
As always this time of year, expect the unexpected with thunderstorms. We will be watching the weather closely through the afternoon and evening.
A band of showers and thunderstorms moved into western sections of the state early this morning. The storms have remained just under severe levels for the most part.
As of 5:20 am, heavy rain continues to move east…especially along the I-20 and I-59 corridors. Some gusty winds and lots of thunder and lightning as well.
We are focused on south Alabama this morning for the main threat of additional severe weather. The SPC has placed southern sections of the state under a Tornado Watch effective until Noon.
This region will need to be watched closely over the morning hours for the possibility of severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes.
The morning rain and storms will continue to move through and eventually east of the state this morning. We then expect a period of partly cloudy and dry conditions to develop.
This may allow the atmosphere to recharge and as the cold front out west moves east, new thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. These storms will need to be watched as they will have potential to be strong to severe storms.
The activity this afternoon is expected to be more scattered in nature than the widespread bands we have seen this morning.
We will be following the latest weather developments on the weather conditions and post updates here and on Twitter throughout the day.
We are watching a developing complex weather system for Alabama over the next 24 to 36 hours.
The evolution of storms over Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana will have an impact on what occurs downstream over the state Saturday morning through Saturday evening. As a result, the forecast will subject to change at almost any time.
The main threat for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern and central locations of the state through the day Saturday.
The first feature of interest is the warm front along the coast that will surge northward tonight. We will also be watching a MCS organize to our west. Models indicate rich Gulf moisture moving in from the southwest after Midnight.
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected along the advancing warm front. Some flash flooding is possible late tonight into early Saturday morning.
There is concern that storms associated with the overnight activity may encounter surface-based cape as they move along the northwestern counties of the state in the 3 to 6 am time frame. Shear values will be sufficient for damaging winds and possibly a tornado threat. This situation will be watched closely as the event unfolds.
There may be a temporary break in the rain and storms by late Saturday morning…as the system weakens and moves east.
More showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon as yet again another threat of severe weather will be possible.
Rain totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected with locally heavier amounts likely.
Be sure to stay weather aware and have a source of receiving weather information in the event severe weather threatens your area.