Moderate Risk Issued for Monday

 

A warm front moving northward today will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across areas of the state. No severe weather is expected today from these storms…however some storms will have the potential for wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail and locally heavy rain.

Forecast reasoning regarding the upcoming severe weather threat remains essentially unchanged from previous forecasts. We are still looking for 3 rounds of storms: Monday morning, Monday night/Tuesday morning, and Tuesday afternoon and evening.

We still think the first round poses the lowest threat of severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a rather large moderate risk area not that far away from Alabama for today.

The storms that develop in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi today could very well eventually consolidate into a line, which would move eastward tonight. Even though conditions here tonight will not be as unstable as they are west of here, once a line of storms like that forms and get ahead of steam going, it often times is able to self-sustain despite less conducive conditions.

Our better severe weather threats still appear to come with the second and potential third round of storms Monday and Tuesday.

The Day 2 outlook form the Storm Prediction Center now places areas of North an West Alabama in a Moderate Risk for severe weather and mentions a potential for strong tornadoes.

The area that is ‘hatched’ in the black is of particular concern. These areas are in the significant threats of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

moderate-risk

The third round is highly dependent on what exactly transpires with the 2nd round of storms before it. The big question is whether or not Monday night’s storm end or diminish early enough for conditions to recover and destabilize again Tuesday afternoon. There is certainly evidence of this possibility on the Global and higher resolution modes, suggesting some amount of redevelopment. Any redevelopment that does occur would be accompanied by a risk of damaging winds and tornadoes.

This will be a slow moving storm system with the potential for training of strong and severe thunderstorms. Rainfall totals between 3 and 5 inches are likely by Tuesday evening… producing flooding is another threat.