Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front are occurring in the Ohio Valley, and are expected to move southward towards Alabama during the night.
The upstream MCS may reach the far northern counties of the state late tonight. The storms will be capable of strong and gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. No wide spread severe storms are expected tonight.
Our thinking at the moment is an outflow boundary from this convection will affect the northern half of the state on Thursday. This will produce another round of thunderstorms, some of which may become strong to severe.
We will have to watch these thunderstorms carefully. The timing of the cold front, upper waves and outflow boundaries will make for a tricky forecast for the next 48 hours.
We are going to be in a northwest flow, and these can mean quick changes to the forecast as storm complexes develop to our northwest and move quickly towards the southeast.