What a difference 24 hours can make for the overall weather model guidance. Just as confidence was increasing for a significant winter event across the northern half of Alabama, the models now indicate a warm up and take the surface Low further north.
The new track of the storm will take most of the snow further north out of Alabama. This would also leave the northern one-third of Alabama under the threat of a period of sleet and freezing rain for Monday.
Due to potential for the models to shift again, both the National Weather Service offices in Huntsville and Birmingham have decided to maintain the Winter Storm Watch.
Based on the latest trends…The developing area of Low pressure will approach the region from the southwest early Monday morning.
Morning sleet and freezing rain will develop and is expected to transition to rain from south-to-north through the afternoon.
The greatest potential for accumulating sleet and freezing rain will be during the morning hours, before temperatures warm into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.
Locations in extreme northwest Alabama and the elevated terrain of northeast Alabama will remain below freezing for a longer period and will likely receive the most wintry precipitation.
The Birmingham weather office has removed all wording of snow for their coverage area, and maintain the risk for the system to start as sleet and freezing rain for their northern counties as depicted below.
The Huntsville weather office still mentions a snow and sleet mix changing to freezing rain and then a cold rain as depicted below.
I will continue to post updates on the site and via Twitter, so stay tuned.