We are watching a developing complex weather system for Alabama over the next 24 to 36 hours.
The evolution of storms over Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana will have an impact on what occurs downstream over the state Saturday morning through Saturday evening. As a result, the forecast will subject to change at almost any time.
The main threat for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern and central locations of the state through the day Saturday.
The first feature of interest is the warm front along the coast that will surge northward tonight. We will also be watching a MCS organize to our west. Models indicate rich Gulf moisture moving in from the southwest after Midnight.
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected along the advancing warm front. Some flash flooding is possible late tonight into early Saturday morning.
There is concern that storms associated with the overnight activity may encounter surface-based cape as they move along the northwestern counties of the state in the 3 to 6 am time frame. Shear values will be sufficient for damaging winds and possibly a tornado threat. This situation will be watched closely as the event unfolds.
There may be a temporary break in the rain and storms by late Saturday morning…as the system weakens and moves east.
More showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon as yet again another threat of severe weather will be possible.
Rain totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected with locally heavier amounts likely.
Be sure to stay weather aware and have a source of receiving weather information in the event severe weather threatens your area.